The fascinating negotiations in history: Where will the Brexit lead us?

brexit picA year ago, on June 23rd, the dramatic voting in Britain happened, in which their citizens have decided to depart from the European Union. The great upheaval that began with that decision continued with the resignation of UK’s prime minister and a stormy election campaign that ended with a close victory by Theresa May.

May’s victory led to the negotiations for UK’s withdrawal from the Union. Brexit is considered the most important and complex negotiations in Europe since the end of World War II and, as expected, the drama takes place before they begin to discuss the “fine-print” themselves. This is expected to continue throughout the process, all under the scrutiny of the public, journalists, and politicians over the continent.

It is clear to all parties that the financial issue, which is currently a core issue, is not the only issue on the agenda and not necessarily the most controversial one. In fact, even at this point in time, there is no certainty as to the positions of the parties. The EU is seeking a high fine, mentioning even €100 billion but throughout the entire negotiation process, there will also be changes that will affect all decision-making processes in real time.

Teresa May comes to the table at a point of weakness. She made a great bet and knocked the kingdom down with that bet. May decided to go with snap elections in order to get a backwind from the public and achieve a stronger political force and found herself without the support of the public, without political power and is totally dependent on the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party. Tough negotiations can serve May and strengthen domestic support for it on British streets but in the same breath will provoke stronger opposition among opponents, including those who wanted to remain in the EU but nevertheless voted for May as prime minister.

In any negotiation, certainly in these negotiations, the future relationship between the players is supposed to be the main interest for everyone. It should be remembered that the United States of Trump is not reaching out as in the past which could become an external strategic threat even after the end of the negotiations. Therefore, it is true that the nature of the talks between London and Brussels will affect the relations in Europe and the world over the long term, long after the players who lead them off the stage.

 

Leave a Reply