Market Forecast 01/09/2017

Gold Price Remains Buy on Dips ahead of US NFP

Key Points

  • Gold price made a nice upside move towards $1323 against the US Dollar and currently correcting lower.
  • There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $1307 on the hourly chart.
  • Today in China, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for August 2017 was released.
  • The forecast was 50.9, but the actual was positive with an increase from the last reading of 51.1 to 51.6.
  • Today’s US NFP release of August 2017 could impact gold price in the short term.

XAUUSDH1

Gold price after setting a top at $1325.91 declined against the US Dollar. The price even traded below the $1300 level and set a low of $1297.41.

Later, the price started a recovery and moved back above the $1300 handle, the 100 hourly simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1325 high to $1297 low.

The price recently traded as high as $1323.31 and currently correcting lower. On the downside, an initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1297 low to $1323 high.

However, the most important support is near $1310, which is also the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1297 low to $1323 high. The 100 hourly simple moving average is also positioned near $1310.

So, there are many reasons to consider buying Gold near $1310 if it dips further in the short term.

Chinese Caixin China Manufacturing PMI

Today in China, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for August 2017 was released. The forecast was slated for a decline from the last reading of 51.1 to 50.9.

However, the actual result was above the forecast, as there was an increase from the last reading of 51.1 to 51.6. The new business posted strongest increase for just over three years. The report added that there was a solid increase in total new work, which was underpinned by a sharp rise in export sales since early 2010.

Overall, the outcome was positive and likely to keep gold price above the $1310 level. However, today’s US NFP release of August 2017 might ignite heavy moves in the short term.

 

NZD/USD Forecast – More Declines Likely

Key Points

  • The New Zealand Dollar is under a lot of pressure below the 0.7200 handle against the US Dollar.
  • There is a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7190 forming on the hourly chart of the NZD/USD pair.

NZDUSDH1

The New Zealand Dollar recently declined and tested the 0.7130 level against the US Dollar. Later, the NZDUSD pair found bids and recovered above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7276 high to 0.7130 low.

However, the upside move was protected by a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7190 on the hourly chart. The 0.7130 also coincides with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7276 high to 0.7130 low.

Therefore, it can be considered as a failed upside attempt, and the pair is likely to retest 0.7130 and could even break it.

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