Market Forecast 04/09/2017

AUDUSD – Aussie Dollar Correcting Lower

Key Points

  • The Aussie Dollar traded as high as 0.7992 against the US Dollar before starting a correction.
  • There is a descending channel or we can say a flag pattern with resistance at 0.7960 forming on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.
  • Today in Australia, the TD Securities Inflation for August 2017 was released by The University of Melbourne – Faculty of Economics and Commerce.
  • The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was a rise of 0.1% (MoM).

AUDUSDH1 (1)

The Aussie Dollar made a nice upside move this past week and traded above the 0.7920 resistance area against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded as high as 0.7992 before facing offers.

Later, the pair started a correction and moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7870 low to 0.7992 high. At the moment, there is a descending channel or a flag pattern with resistance at 0.7960 forming on the hourly chart.

The recent drop was prevented by the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7870 low to 0.7992 high. On the downside, the 100 hourly simple moving average is near 0.7940, which is a solid support.

So, there is a strong chance of AUD/USD resuming its uptrend via breaking the channel resistance at 0.7960 in the near term.

Australia’s TD Securities Inflation

Today in Australia, the TD Securities Inflation for August 2017 was released by The University of Melbourne – Faculty of Economics and Commerce. The forecast was slated for a rise of 0.1% in the Inflation compared with the previous month.

The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was an increase of 0.1%. On the other hand, the yearly change in the TD Securities Inflation was 2.6%, down from the last reading of 2.7%.

Moreover, Company Gross Operating Profits report for Q2 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. As per the report, there was a decline of 4.5% in profits, compared with the last increase of 6%.

Overall, the AUD/USD pair may correct further, but remains supported on the downside near 0.7940.

USD/CHF – US Dollar to Extend Declines

Key Points

  • The US Dollar likely made a short-term top near 0.9678 against the Swiss Franc.
  • The USD/CHF pair broke a major bullish trend line at 0.9580 on the hourly chart.

USDCHFH1 (3)

The US Dollar started a nice upside move from the 0.9426 low against the Swiss Franc. The USD/CHF pair traded as high as 0.9678 before carving a short-term top.

The pair has started correcting lower and already moved below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9426 low to 0.9678 high. Sellers also succeeded in breaking a major bullish trend line at 0.9580 on the hourly chart.

Therefore, there are chances that the pair might extend losses and could even trade towards 0.9500 in the near term. A break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.9426 low to 0.9678 high at 0.9552 low is needed for further declines.

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