Market Forecast 06/09/2017

EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro Remains Sell on Rallies

Key Points

  • The Euro remains in a downtrend and recently traded below the 130.40 support against the Japanese Yen.
  • There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 130.00 and 130.65 on the hourly chart of the EUR/JPY pair.
  • Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Retail Sales report of July 2017 was released by the National Institute of Statistics.
  • The outcome was in line with the forecast, as there was a decline in sales by 0.2% (MoM).

EURJPYH1

The Euro started a major downtrend from the 131.50 swing high against the Japanese Yen. During the downside move, the EURJPY pair broke the 131.00 and 130.00 support levels.

The pair traded as low as 129.35 from where it is currently attempting a recovery. It is already above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 130.69 high to 129.35 low.

On the upside, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at 130.00 and 130.65 on the hourly chart. These trend lines along with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 130.69 high to 129.35 low might act as a strong barrier for more gains in EUR/JPY.

Therefore, one might consider selling rallies near the 130.00 or 130.20 levels as long as there is no close above the 100 hourly simple moving average at 130.40.

Italian Retail Sales

Today, the Euro Zone saw the release of the Italian Retail Sales report of July 2017 by the National Institute of Statistics. The forecast was slated for a decline of 0.2% compared with the previous month.

The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was a decline in sales by 0.2%. There was an increase of +0.1% for food goods, but there was a decline of -0.3% for non-food goods.

The yearly change was well below the market forecast of 1.1%, as there was no change in sales (0%). It was even disappointing when compared with the last increase of 0.6%.

 

Gold Price Remains Elevated above $1335

Key Points

  • Gold price is in a bullish trend and currently trading well above the $1330 support against the US Dollar.
  • There is a rising channel forming with support at $1335 on the hourly chart.

XAUUSDH1 (2)

Gold price is following a bullish trend and recently spiked above the $1320 and $1330 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The price traded as high as $1344.26 and currently correcting lower.

The price is currently trading just above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1326.11 low to $1344.26 high. On the dips, the price remains supported near a rising channel at $1335 on the hourly chart.

Furthermore, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1326.11 low to $1344.26 high at $1333 is also a strong support. On the upside, the channel resistance at $1346 is a barrier for further gains.

Overall, buying dips near $1335 can be considered as long as the price is above the channel support.

 

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