Market Forecast 11/09/2017

EUR/GBP Forecast – Euro To Retest 0.9080 Vs Pound?

Key Points

  • The Euro after an impressive bullish run towards the 0.9300 level against the British Pound found sellers.
  • There are two bearish trend lines positioned on the upside at 0.9175 on the hourly chart of the EUR/GBP pair.
  • Today in the Euro Zone, the Italian Industrial Output report for July 2017 was released by the National Institute of Statistics.
  • The forecast was -0.3%, but there was an increase of 0.1% (MoM) in the Industrial Output.

EURGBPH1 (4)

The Euro was in a solid uptrend and even moved towards 0.9300 against the British Pound this past week. Later, the EUR/GBP pair struggled to retain the bullish bias and started a major correction below 0.9250.

The pair traded below the 0.9250 and 0.9150 support levels to initiate a sustained correction. A new weekly low was formed recently at 0.9094 from there the pair is correcting higher. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9201 high to 0.9094 low.

The next major resistance is near 0.9150 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The stated 0.9150 resistance is also near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9201 high to 0.9094 low.

Further above 0.9150, there are two bearish trend lines positioned on the upside at 0.9175 on the hourly chart.

Overall, there are many hurdles on the upside starting 0.9120 up to 0.9175. On the downside, the pair could test 0.9080 in the near term.

 

Italian Industrial Output

Today, the Euro Zone saw the release of Italian Industrial Output report for July 2017 by the National Institute of Statistics. The forecast was slated for a decline of 0.3% in the output compared with the previous month.

However, the actual result was above the forecast, as there was an increase of 0.1% in the output in July 2017. In terms of the yearly change, the market was looking for an increase of 3.8%. Again, the actual was positive, as there was a rise of 4.4% in the output. Although, it was less compared with the last revised increase of 5.2%.

Finally, looking at the last three months, there was an increase of 1.4% in the Italian Industrial Output.

 

USD/CHF Forecast – US Dollar Remains In Downtrend

Key Points

  • The US Dollar remains in a downtrend from the 0.9650 swing high against the Swiss Franc.
  • There is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9505 forming on the hourly chart of the USD/CHF pair.

USDCHFH1 (4)

The US Dollar after trading above the 0.9600 handle against the Swiss Franc failed to hold gains and started a downside move. The USD/CHF pair traded below the 0.9580 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average to set a short-term downtrend.

The pair recently traded as low as 0.9420 and is currently correcting higher. It has already moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9592 high to 0.9420 low.

However, a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9505 on the hourly chart prevented gains along with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9592 high to 0.9420 low.

The 100 hourly simple moving average is also near 0.9520 to act as a hurdle for buyers. Overall, as long as the pair is below 0.9520, it could resume its downtrend.

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