Market Forecast 18/09/2017

The GBP/JPY pair remains in a bullish trend above 148.00 and dips present buying opportunity. On the other hand, upsides remain capped near 0.7250-0.7260 in NZD/USD.

NZD/USD Forecast – Upsides Remain Capped

Key Points

  • The New Zealand Dollar managed to find bids near 0.7190 against the US Dollar, and recovered.
  • There is a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7255 forming on the hourly chart of the NZD/USD pair.
  • Recently in New Zealand, the Business NZ PMI for August 2017 was released by the Business NZ.
  • The outcome was above the forecast of 55.4, as there was a rise in the PMI to 57.9.

NZDUSDH1 (1)

The New Zealand Dollar recently declined below the 0.7200 handle against the US Dollar before finding support near 0.7182. Later, the NZDUSD pair formed a base and started a recovery above the 0.7200 handle

It moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7302 high to 0.7182 low. However, the upside move is facing hurdles near a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7255 on the hourly chart.

The 100 hourly simple moving average and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7302 high to 0.7182 low are also near the trend line resistance.

Therefore, a break above the 0.7255-0.7260 resistance won’t be easy in the near term.  On the flip side, dips towards the 0.7210 level remains supported before the pair attempts the next break.

 

New Zealand Business PMI

Today in New Zealand, the Business NZ PMI for August 2017 was released by the Business NZ. The forecast was slated for a minor rise from the last reading of 55.4 to 56.2.

However, the actual result was above the forecast of 55.4, as there was a rise in the PMI to 57.9. The current reading was 2.5 points more than the last reading and it is very near to expansion levels seen in May 2017.

Commenting on the data, the BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing, Catherine Beard, stated, “Expansion was higher for three of the five sub-indices, with production (60.3) at its highest level since September 2016”.

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GBP/JPY Forecast – Bullish Trend Intact

Key Points

  • The British Pound is in a super bullish trend above the 147.50 level against the Japanese Yen.
  • There is a major bullish trend line with support at 146.60 forming on the hourly chart of GBP/JPY.

GBPJPYH1 (2)

The British Pound started a crucial uptrend from the 141.30 low against the Japanese Yen, and is currently up by more than 500 pips. The GBP/JPY pair formed many bullish patterns during the upside and currently trading above the 148.00 handle.

The recent high was 148.8 and it seems like upsides are far from over. On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line with support at 146.60 forming on the hourly chart along with 100 hourly simple moving average.

There is a chance of a minor correction towards the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 146.59 low to 148.89 high, but it can be seen as buying opportunity.

Overall, as long as the pair is above 146.80 and the 100 hourly SMA, buyers are here to stay.

 

 

 

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