Market Forecast 27/09/2017
The Euro is correcting higher vs the Japanese Yen, but upsides remain capped near 133.00. Crude oil price is starting to show signs of a short-term top.
EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro’s Upsides Remain Capped
- The Euro started a downside move from the 134.35 swing high against the Japanese Yen.
- The EURJPY pair is currently correcting higher and forming a short-term contracting triangle with resistance at 13260 on the hourly chart.
- Today in the Euro Zone, M3 Supply Data for August 2017 was released by the European Central Bank.
- The outcome was above the forecast of 4.6%, as there was a rise of 5% (YoY).
The Euro after failing to move above the 134.40 level against the Japanese Yen started a downside move. The EUR/JPY pair broke the 134.00 and 133.00 support levels during the decline and traded as low as 131.73.
The pair is currently correcting higher and already above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.45 high to 131.73 low. At the moment, the pair is attempting a break above a short-term contracting triangle with resistance at 13260 on the hourly chart.
The triangle resistance is also near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.45 high to 131.73 low.
There is a chance of an upside break, but the 133.00 and 133.25 levels are waiting on the upside to prevent gains in EUR/JPY. Selling rallies towards 133.00-20 can be considered in the short term with a tight stop.
Euro Zone M3 Supply
Today, the Euro Zone saw the release of the M3 Supply Data for August 2017 by the European Central Bank. The forecast was slated for a rise of 4.6% compared with the same month a year ago.
The actual result was above the forecast of 4.6%, as there was a rise of 5%. Looking at the 3-month change, there was a rise of 4.8% in the supply, which was similar to the last reading.
On the other hand, the Private loans were up from the last 2.4% to 2.5%. Overall, the result was mixed, but might help EUR/JPY in the short term towards 133.00.
Crude Oil Price To Correct Lower
- Crude oil price after an upside surge found offers near $52.40 against the US Dollar.
- The price is moving lower towards a bullish trend line with support at $51.90 on the hourly chart.
Crude oil price gained a lot of bullish momentum recently and moved above the $52.00 level against the US Dollar. The price traded as high as $52.48 and currently struggling to remain elevated.
It has started a short-term correction and is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $50.47 low to $52.48 high.
On the downside, there is a bullish trend line with support at $51.90 on the hourly chart, which can be considered as a buy zone.
As long as the price is above the $51.80 level, it can bounce back, but if it breaks $51.80, there can be a downside move towards $51.20.
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