Market Forecast 05/10/2017

AUD/USD is now below 100 hourly SMA and looks set for more declines. NZD/USD is forming a base above 0.7145 and eyeing an upside break.

 

AUDUSD – Aussie Dollar to Decline Further?

Key Points:

  • The Aussie Dollar after trading above 0.7870 against the US Dollar found sellers and moved down.
  • There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.7850 on the hourly chart of the AUD/USD pair.
  • Today in Australia, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • The outcome was below the forecast of +0.3%, as there was a decline of 0.6% in sales (MoM).

AUDUSDH1.png

The Aussie Dollar started a nice upside move from the 0.7785 low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded above the 0.7850 level, but failed to move past the 0.7875 resistance.

The pair started a downside move and broke the 0.7850 level and a channel support. Moreover, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.7850 on the hourly chart.

Sellers managed to push the pair below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7784 low to 0.7874 high and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

At the moment, the pair is testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7784 low to 0.7874 high, and might correct higher.

However, the broken support at 0.7850 might now act as a hurdle for buyers in the near term.

Australia’s Retail Sales

Today in Australia, the Retail Sales figure for August 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was slated for a rise of 0.3% in sales compared with the previous month.

The actual result was below the forecast of +0.3%, as there was a decline of 0.6% in sales (s.a.). When we look at the trend terms, there was a rise of 0.1% in sales in August 2017, which is similar to the rise of 0.1% in July 2017, but less than June’s 0.2%.

There is a chance of a correction in the AUD/USD pair, but upsides could be capped by the 0.7840 or 0.7850 levels.

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NZDUSD – New Zealand Dollar Forming Support Base

Key Points:

  • The New Zealand Dollar declined this week and tested the 0.7145 support against the US Dollar.
  • There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7170 on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair.

NZDUSDH1.png

The New Zealand Dollar came under a lot of pressure this week and moved towards 0.7150 against the US Dollar. It seems like the NZD/USD pair is forming a base near 0.7145 and would soon attempt an upside move.

On the upside, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.7170 on the hourly chart. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7204 high to 0.7145 low.

A break above the trend line resistance would be a bearish sign and the pair could trade towards 0.7180-90 in the short term.

 

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