Category Archives: Oil

Market Forecast 13/10/2017

The NZD/USD pair is back in the bullish zone above 0.7120 and Crude Oil price is set to break the $51.90-52.00 resistance.

NZD/USD Forecast – Back in Bullish Zone

Key Points

  • The New Zealand Dollar after forming a bottom near 0.7050 started an upside move against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7080 on the hourly chart of the NZD/USD pair.
  • Recently in New Zealand, the Business NZ PMI for Sep 2017 was released by the Business NZ.
  • The outcome was above the forecast of 57.0, as there was only a minor decline in the PMI to 57.5.

NZDUSDH1.png

The New Zealand Dollar was under a lot of pressure, but the 0.7050-0.7055 support managed to hold losses against the US Dollar. As a result, the NZDUSD pair formed a bottom above 0.7050 and started an upside move.

It moved above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7204 high to 0.7056 low. The most important move was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7080 on the hourly chart.

The 100 hourly simple moving average was also cleared along with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7204 high to 0.7056 low.

It has opened the doors for more gains and the pair now looks set for an upside break above the 0.7180 level followed by 0.7200. On the downside, there is a bullish trend line with support at 0.7140, which is a decent buy zone.

 

New Zealand Business PMI

Today in New Zealand, the Business NZ PMI for Sep 2017 was released by the Business NZ. The forecast was slated for a decline from the last reading of 57.9 to 57.0.

However, the actual result was above the forecast of 57.0, as there was only a minor decline in the PMI to 57.5. This means the Business PMI in New Zealand continues to display very healthy levels of expansion.

Commenting on the data, the BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing, Catherine Beard, stated, “It was encouraging to see the proportion of positive comments increase further to 69.5%, compared with 65% in August”.

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Crude Oil Price To Break $52.00?

Key Points

  • Crude oil price after a tiny correction found support at $50.40 against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $51.20 on the hourly chart.

USOILH1.png

Crude oil price is back in the bullish zone after forming a base around the $50.40 level against the US Dollar. The price is once again gaining pace and recently cleared the 51.00 resistance and a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $51.20 on the hourly chart.

It even managed to surpass the recent high of $51.62, which means the price might now test the 1.236 extension of the last decline from the $51.62 high to $50.41 low.

If buyers remain in action, there is even a chance of a break above the $52.00 handle in the near term.

 

Risk Disclosure: By trading a leveraged product your capital is at risk.

The information above cannot be a taken as an investment advice and FXPMarkets will not be held liable for any losses that may occur by using the provided above information.

For more information on risks, please read our General Risk Disclosure.

Market Forecast 27/09/2017

The Euro is correcting higher vs the Japanese Yen, but upsides remain capped near 133.00. Crude oil price is starting to show signs of a short-term top.

EUR/JPY Forecast – Euro’s Upsides Remain Capped

Key Points

  • The Euro started a downside move from the 134.35 swing high against the Japanese Yen.
  • The EURJPY pair is currently correcting higher and forming a short-term contracting triangle with resistance at 13260 on the hourly chart.
  • Today in the Euro Zone, M3 Supply Data for August 2017 was released by the European Central Bank.
  • The outcome was above the forecast of 4.6%, as there was a rise of 5% (YoY).

EURJPYH1

The Euro after failing to move above the 134.40 level against the Japanese Yen started a downside move. The EUR/JPY pair broke the 134.00 and 133.00 support levels during the decline and traded as low as 131.73.

The pair is currently correcting higher and already above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.45 high to 131.73 low. At the moment, the pair is attempting a break above a short-term contracting triangle with resistance at 13260 on the hourly chart.

The triangle resistance is also near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 133.45 high to 131.73 low.

There is a chance of an upside break, but the 133.00 and 133.25 levels are waiting on the upside to prevent gains in EUR/JPY. Selling rallies towards 133.00-20 can be considered in the short term with a tight stop.

 

Euro Zone M3 Supply

Today, the Euro Zone saw the release of the M3 Supply Data for August 2017 by the European Central Bank. The forecast was slated for a rise of 4.6% compared with the same month a year ago.

The actual result was above the forecast of 4.6%, as there was a rise of 5%. Looking at the 3-month change, there was a rise of 4.8% in the supply, which was similar to the last reading.

On the other hand, the Private loans were up from the last 2.4% to 2.5%. Overall, the result was mixed, but might help EUR/JPY in the short term towards 133.00.

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Crude Oil Price To Correct Lower

Key Points

  • Crude oil price after an upside surge found offers near $52.40 against the US Dollar.
  • The price is moving lower towards a bullish trend line with support at $51.90 on the hourly chart.

USOILH1

Crude oil price gained a lot of bullish momentum recently and moved above the $52.00 level against the US Dollar. The price traded as high as $52.48 and currently struggling to remain elevated.

It has started a short-term correction and is currently trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $50.47 low to $52.48 high.

On the downside, there is a bullish trend line with support at $51.90 on the hourly chart, which can be considered as a buy zone.

As long as the price is above the $51.80 level, it can bounce back, but if it breaks $51.80, there can be a downside move towards $51.20.

 

Risk Disclosure: By trading a leveraged product your capital is at risk.

The information above cannot be a taken as an investment advice and FXPMarkets will not be held liable for any losses that may occur by using the provided above information.

For more information on risks, please read our General Risk Disclosure.

Market Forecast 08/09/2017

Silver Price Eyes Further Gains

Key Points

  • Silver Price made a nice upside move and traded above $18.00 level against the US Dollar.
  • There is a contracting and ascending triangle forming with current resistance at $18.20 on the hourly chart.
  • Today in China, the Trade Balance report for August 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
  • The forecast was $48.60B, but the actual was a bit lower as there was a trade surplus of $41.99B.

Silver (1)

Silver price started an upside move from the $17.50 swing low against the US Dollar and recently managed to move above the $18.00 level.

The price is trading with a decent bullish bias and likely to extend gains above $18.20 in the near term. At the moment, there is a contracting and ascending triangle forming with current resistance at $18.20 on the hourly chart.

On the downside, the triangle support is near $18.12, which is just above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $17.79 low to $18.20 high.

The price is likely to stay in the bullish zone for some time and any dips from the current levels towards $18.10 or $18.00 can be considered as buying opportunity.

Chinese Trade Balance

Today in China, the Trade Balance report for August 2017 was released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. The forecast was slated for a trade surplus of $48.60B, compared with the last $46.74B.

However, the actual result was a bit lower as there was a trade surplus of $41.99B. Moreover, the last reading was revised down from $46.74B to $46.73B.

Imports of goods and services in August 2017 were better, as there was a rise of 13.3%, more than the forecast of 10% and higher than the last 11%. Exports of goods and services in August 2017 were lower, as there was a rise of 5.5%, less than the forecast of 6% and a lot less than the last 7.2%.

Overall, the report was mixed, and unlikely to impact Silver prices in the short term.

Crude Oil Price Eyeing Upside Break

Key Points

  • Crude Oil Prices gained heavy bullish bias recently and traded above $49.00 against the US Dollar.
  • There is a consolidation pattern forming with resistance at $49.65 on the hourly chart.
  • A break above $49.65 would call for a test of $50.00.

USOILH1 (3)

It seems like Crude oil price started a major upside move from the $46.00 handle against the US Dollar. The price moved higher recently and managed to break many crucial resistances like $47.50, $48.00 and $49.00.

The price recently traded as high as $49.64 before starting a consolidation. Currently, there is a consolidation pattern forming with resistance at $19.65 on the hourly chart.

A major support sits near $49.00 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $46.99 low to $49.64 high. As long as the price is above $49.00, there is a chance of an upside break above $49.65.

Once there is a break above $49.65, it would open the doors for further gains towards the $50.00 handle in the near term.

 

 

 

Risk Disclosure: By trading a leveraged product your capital is at risk.

The information above cannot be a taken as an investment advice and FXPMarkets will not be held liable for any losses that may occur by using the provided above information.

For more information on risks, please read our General Risk Disclosure.

Oil Price To Decline Further

USOILH1 15.08.17

Crude oil price after trading above $50 failed and moved down against the US Dollar. The recent decline was sharp as the price settled below the $48.00 support.

Recently, there was a break of an ascending channel pattern with support at $48.40, opening the doors for more losses. The price seems to be heading towards the 1.3618 extension of the last wave from the $48.10 high to $49.26 low at $47.38.

On the upside, the broken support at $48.20-48.40 might act as a hurdle for buyers in the near term. Overall, selling pressure is intact on Oil, and its price may continue to decline.

Crude Oil Price Forming Contracting Range

USOILH1Crude oil price after a solid rise above the $50.00 level against the US Dollar moved down. A high was formed near $50.44 and then the price traded as low as $48.0.

Later, it started trading in a range and forming a contracting triangle pattern with resistance at $49.40 on the hourly chart. On the downside, the triangle support lies at $48.80, which is a decent buy zone.

Overall, the price might continue to trade in a range above $48.80 in the near term. And, as long as the 100 hourly simple moving average is above the price, upsides remain capped.

Crude Oil Prices Grinding Higher

USOILH1.png

There was an increase in buying pressure for Crude oil, and as a result, its price rose above $49.00 against the US Dollar.

The price broke many resistances like $47.50 and $48.00 to gain pace above $49.00. The price recently traded as high as $49.25 and currently following an ascending channel with support at $48.60 on the hourly chart.

An initial support is around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the $48.25 low to $49.25 high at $48.75. Buying dips in the short term towards $48.75-60 is a good idea as long as the channel support is intact and holding losses.

Crude Oil Price Supported Near 100 SMA

USOILH1 (2).png
After trading as high as $47.05, crude oil price faced resistance and moved down against the US Dollar. It cleared two support trend lines at $46.60 to trade towards $46.00.
The price was well supported by the $46.00 handle and currently back above a bearish trend line on the hourly chart and the 100 simple moving average.
The last two candles are positive and suggesting a bounce back in the near term towards $46.80-47.00. One may consider buying dips as long as the price is above $46.00 and 100 SMA. A close below $46.00 might take the price back towards $45.00.

Oil Price Facing Renewed Selling Pressure

USOILH1 (1)A downtrend was initiated from the $47.40 swing high in Crude Oil Price against the US Dollar. The price faced a lot of selling pressure and broke the $45.50 and $44.75 support levels.
It traded as low as $43.88 from where a correction was initiated, and a triangle pattern was formed on the hourly chart.
The price traded just above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $46.62 high to $43.88 low but failed to break the $44.75 resistance (support turned resistance). The price is currently moving lower, and may soon retest $43.88 or could even break it for $43.50.

Crude Oil Price Slowly Recovering

XTIUSDH1

There was a decent upside move in Crude oil price after a decline towards $41.85 level against the US Dollar.

The price has formed a support and started trading higher above $42. There was a close above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $45.25 high to $41.84 low.

The price also moved above a bearish trend line at $42.70 and 100 hourly simple moving average. Any dips from the current levels towards $43 might be considered as buying opportunity.

On the downside, there is a trend line at $43 and the 100 hourly SMA at $43.12 are good supports in the near term.

Crude Oil About To Decline Further?

Crude oil price after rising above the $52 level against the US Dollar failed to hold gains and started a downside move.

The price declined towards $48.00, and formed a support base near $47.90. However, it is struggling to hold the stated level and remains at a risk of a break towards $47.50, which is the 1.236 extension of the last wave from the $47.82 low to $49.23 high.
On the upside, there is a bearish trend line with resistance at $49.20 on the hourly chart. If the price corrects higher, it is likely to face sellers near $48.40 and $49.00 for another downside move.

 

*By trading CFDs your capital is at risk.